The Determinants of Civil War and Excess Zeros
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper considers the determinants of civil conict, using a zero-inated Poisson modelling approach that deals with the problem of excess zero observations, which we argue are related to two distinct data generation processes. Despite their continued use in the literature, traditional probit and logit models have limited capacity in dealing with this issue and can lead to misleading results. This is illustrated by estimating the model in Elbadawi and Sambanis (2002) using their data and nding di¤erent results and providing substantive information about the data generating process of heterogeneous zeroes in the database. This greed-grievance model is then estimated on a sample of 134 countries, over 54 years and provides some interesting results. While the standard probit and Poisson models tend to emphasise the grievance e¤ects in support of opportunity variables,as found in other studies, the zero-inated models gives provides more support for grievance e¤ects. In particular, ethnicity and inequality are found to play a signifcant role, in contrast to earlier studies.
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